Economy: Is the Global Economy Slowly Falling Apart?

By Michael SivyApril

It’s conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy is steadily recovering from the recession, even if progress is slow and disappointing. But there’s also a widespread sense that long-term economic prospects are deteriorating all around the world. Young people can’t find jobs. Budgets keep being cut in both the public and the private sectors. And the projected increase in debt over the next decade figures to be a huge burden for the most highly developed economies. Political systems seem unable to cope with problems that ought to be fairly easy to solve, or at least contain. As the recent crisis in Cyprus demonstrates, a minor dislocation can become a threat to the entire global financial system overnight.

The U.S. is deeply troubled too. Deficits remain enormous, and the checks and balances of the political system have turned into a logjam. In a new book, David Stockman, President Ronald Reagan’s budget director, chronicles the relentless downward spiral of America’s political and financial systems. He concludes: “The future is bleak … When the latest bubble pops, there will be nothing to stop the collapse.”

This view may be extreme, but there’s hard evidence to substantiate the idea that the global economy is becoming more rickety. Although the developed world today is considerably richer overall than it was when Stockman worked in the Reagan Administration, creditworthiness has been steadily declining. The global supply of AAA-rated government bonds has shrunk by more than 60% since the financial crisis began. And while dozens of big U.S. corporations had top bond ratings 30 years ago, today that group has dwindled to four: Automatic Data Processing, Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft.

How seriously should we take these bellwethers? Although there are real problems that need to be solved, the long-term picture doesn’t look entirely bleak. Four major trends will determine global economy stability in the long run: